2021, 38(4): 70-77.
For accurately predicting civil aviation accident signs, based on the statistical bulletin of the civil aviation industry development, total turnover in 2009-2016 civil aviation transport, passenger transport, transport fleet number, fixed assets investment and 16 factors indicators, using the correlation analysis of grey theory and predict, at the same time, using the theory of multiple linear regression analysis. The above method is applied to predict the accident symptom number of CAAC in 2017-2018. The results show that the average relative error of the 2-year prediction using GM (1,1) model is 9.24%. In the GM (1, N) model, the average relative error predicted by the GM (1,2) model is 7.73%. The average relative error of GM (1,3) model is 7.54%. The average relative error predicted by GM (1,4) model was 7.43%. The average relative error of the multiple linear regression model is 34.27%. GM (1,2) is used to improve the short-term prediction accuracy. GM (1,4) can be used to predict the future number of civil aviation accidents in China, so as to guide the development planning of civil aviation.