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管理科学与工程

基于VMD-MWPE的DCNN-BiLSTM-Att旅游景区客流量混合预测方法

  • 陈丹红 , 1 ,
  • 罗毛毛 1, 2 ,
  • 余志远 3
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  • 1. 沈阳航空航天大学 经济与管理学院,沈阳 110136
  • 2. 九江科技职业大学 公共教育部,江西 九江 332020
  • 3. 东北财经大学 旅游与酒店管理学院,辽宁 大连 116025

陈丹红(1970—),女,湖南永州人,教授,主要研究方向为工商管理,E-mail:

收稿日期: 2024-12-26

  修回日期: 2025-06-14

  录用日期: 2025-06-15

  网络出版日期: 2026-06-15

基金资助

国家哲学社会科学基金(21BJ200)

中国人才研究会项目(ZRH-2111)

辽宁省社科联2025年度经济社会发展研究课题(2025lslybkt-088)

DCNN-BiLSTM-Att hybrid forecasting method of tourist flow in scenic spots based on VMD-MWPE

  • Danhong CHEN , 1 ,
  • Maomao LUO 1, 2 ,
  • Zhiyuan YU 3
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  • 1. College of Economics and Management,Shenyang Aerospace University,Shenyang 110136,China
  • 2. Ministry of Public Education,Jiujiang Polytechnic University of Science and Technology,Jiujiang 332020,China
  • 3. College of Tourism and Hotel Management,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China

Received date: 2024-12-26

  Revised date: 2025-06-14

  Accepted date: 2025-06-15

  Online published: 2026-06-15

摘要

为了进一步提高景区客流量的预测精度,提出一种基于变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)结合多尺度加权排列熵(multiscale weighted permutation entropy,MWPE)的数据预处理模型,以及通过双层卷积、双向长短期记忆网络及注意力机制的组合(deep convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-term memory-attention mechanism,DCNN-BiLSTM-Att)客流量预测方法。为检验方法的有效性,本文以中国庐山景区为例对方法进行实验测试。实验结果表明,与DNN、LSTM、XGBoost、BiLSTM、DCNN-LSTM、DCNN-BiLSTM等传统模型相比,基于VMD-MWPE的DCNN-BiLSTM-Att模型对旅游景区客流量的预测具有更好的准确性、鲁棒性和泛化能力。

本文引用格式

陈丹红 , 罗毛毛 , 余志远 . 基于VMD-MWPE的DCNN-BiLSTM-Att旅游景区客流量混合预测方法[J]. 沈阳航空航天大学学报, 2026 , 43(2) : 77 -82 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1248.2026.02.011

Abstract

To further improve the prediction accuracy of tourist flow in scenic spots, a model based on the data preprocessing of variational mode decomposition (VMD) combined with multi-scale weighted permutation entropy (MWPE) was proposed, through the combination of double-layer convolution, bidirectional long short-term memory network and attention mechanism (DCNN-BiLSTM-Att). Lushan Scenic spot in China was taken as an example to test the effectiveness of the method. The experimental results show that compared with traditional models such as DNN, LSTM, XGBoost, BiLSTM, DCNN-LSTM, and DCNN-BiLSTM, the DCNN-BiLSTM-Att model based on VMD-MWPE has better accuracy, robustness and generalization ability for tourist flow prediction in scenic spots.

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