为了避免万向联轴器因磨损导致传动效率下降甚至破坏的问题，基于Archard模型和Hertz接触理论对磨损量进行计算。结合动力学仿真给出输出端角速度变化幅度和磨损量之间的函数关系，进而建立可靠度及灵敏度计算模型。结果表明，磨损量越大，输出端角速度的波动越大，当磨损量超过一定值时，输出端角速度的波动出现明显激增；随着磨损量增大，可靠度逐步下降，可靠度对各随机变量的灵敏度均为负值，其中参数K _H的灵敏度最大。因此，在定期监测磨损量和输出端角速度变化幅度的同时，应采取适当工艺手段提高材料硬度和使用优质润滑油等措施降低K _H的均值和离散性。

In order to prevent the issue of transmission efficiency decline or even failure in universal joint caused by wear，the wear amount was calculated based on the Archard model and Hertz contact theory.the functional relationship between the variation amplitude of the output angular velocity and the wear amount was given by using dynamic simulations，and a reliability and sensitivity calculation model was established.The results show that greater wear leads to greater fluctuation of the output angular velocity，with a significant increase in fluctuations once the wear amount exceeds a certain threshold.As the wear amount increases，reliability gradually decreases，and the sensitivity of reliability to each random variable is negative，with the parameter K _H having the highest sensitivity.Therefore，while regularly monitoring the wear amount and the variation amplitude of output angular velocity，appropriate process measures should be taken to improve material hardness and use high-quality lubricants to reduce the mean and dispersion of K _H.